Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered strong topline and profitability: net sales $2.887B (+3.7% YoY), segment income $398M (+29% YoY), and adjusted diluted EPS $1.67 vs $1.02 in Q1 2024 .
Significant beat vs Wall Street: adjusted EPS beat consensus by ~$0.44 and revenue by ~$69M; reported diluted EPS $1.65 also exceeded expectations* .
Guidance raised: full-year adjusted EPS increased to $6.70–$7.10 (from $6.60–$7.00), Q2 adjusted EPS guided to $1.80–$1.90, with 2025 adjusted free cash flow ~$800M and capex ~$450M .
Beverage can strength across regions (NA +2%, Europe +5%, Brazil +11% volumes) and improved manufacturing underpinned the beat; Transit Packaging remained stable but cautious given tariff risks .
Capital returns remained robust: $233M returned to shareholders in Q1 including $203M buybacks; trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA surpassed $2.0B for the first time; long-term net leverage target reaffirmed at 2.5x .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Beverage can businesses globally outperformed: “Combined first quarter beverage can segment income climbed 24%... attributable to robust volumes in Brazil and Europe and outstanding operational performance” — Tim Donahue .
North American Food & Closures strength: food can volumes rose 16% with improved manufacturing; “income and other increased $21 million in the quarter” — Tim Donahue .
Cash generation and buybacks: operating cash flow turned positive in Q1 ($14M) and $203M share repurchases supported capital return momentum .

What Went Wrong

Transit Packaging softer: “subdued industrial demand continues… quoting is very high; actual orders… a little slower than we’d like to see” — management noted potential direct tariff impact < $10M and total exposure < $30M for 2025 .
FX headwinds and working capital drag: unfavorable FX impact on net sales (-$31M) and segment income (-$2M); working capital outflow weighed on operating cash flow .
Q3/Q4 comparability impacted by non-GAAP items: 2024 Q3 included $517M pension settlement charges and Q4 included a $275M gain on sale of Eviosys, distorting GAAP EBIT/Net margins vs underlying operations .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.074	$2.903	$2.887
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$(1.47) (pension settlements)	$3.02 (Eviosys gain)	$1.65
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$1.99	$1.59	$1.67
EBIT ($USD Millions)	$(82) (pension settlements)	$607 (Eviosys gain)	$358
EBIT Margin %	(2.7%)	20.9%	12.4%
Net Income Margin % (GAAP)	(5.7%)	12.3%	6.7%
EPS Consensus Mean ($)*	$1.80	$1.51	$1.23
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)*	$3.062	$2.892	$2.818

Notes: Asterisks indicate values retrieved from S&P Global. Estimates vs actuals: Q3 2024 EPS beat by ~$0.19; Q4 2024 EPS beat by ~$0.08; Q1 2025 EPS beat by ~$0.44; Q3/Q4/Q1 revenue each modestly above consensus*.

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Segment	Net Sales Q1 2024 ($MM)	Net Sales Q1 2025 ($MM)	Segment Income Q1 2024 ($MM)	Segment Income Q1 2025 ($MM)
Americas Beverage	$1,222	$1,320	$189	$236
European Beverage	$482	$512	$51	$67
Asia Pacific	$279	$279	$42	$47
Transit Packaging	$520	$482	$68	$60
Other (Food, Aerosol, Closures, etc.)	$281	$294	$8	$29
Corporate & Unallocated	—	—	$(50)	$(41)
Total	$2,784	$2,887	$308	$398

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Prior Period / Context
Global beverage can volume growth	~+1% YoY	Q3 2024 +5%; Q4 2024 +4%
NA Beverage volume	+2%	Q4 2024 +7%
Brazil Beverage volume	+11%	2024 full-year +10%
Europe Beverage volume	+5%	Q4 2024 +8%
NA Food can volume	+16%	Improved manufacturing, pet foods strength
Segment income	$398M (+$90M YoY)
Adjusted EBITDA	$473M
Adjusted FCF (Q1)	$(6)M
Shareholder returns	$233M ($203M buybacks)
TTM Adjusted EBITDA	$2.032B; Adjusted net leverage 2.8x

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$6.60–$7.00 (Feb 2025)	$6.70–$7.10 (Apr 2025)	Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS	Q2 2025	—	$1.80–$1.90	New
Adjusted Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	~$800M	~$800M	Maintained
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	~$450M	~$450M	Maintained
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	~25%	~25%	Maintained
Long-term Net Leverage Target	Multi-year	2.5x [47 press July 2024, reiterated FY2024]	2.5x reaffirmed	Maintained
Buybacks	FY 2025	~$275–$300M (color from prior commentary)	~“around $300M” per CFO	Clarified
Financing	2025	—	Priced $700M 5.875% notes due 2033; proceeds to repay 2026 notes	Actioned
Dividend	Q2 2025	—	$0.26/share payable May 29, 2025	Announced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2: Q3 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Beverage demand & substrate shift	Global beverage shipments +5%; Europe/US/Mexico strong; cautious on industrial	Beverage segment income +17% in Q4; volume growth NA +7%, EU +8%	Tight supply expected in NA & Europe for summer; substrate shift accelerating in Europe	Strengthening
Tariffs & macro	Pension settlements affected Q3 GAAP; macro industrial contraction noted	Outlook improved; deleveraging	Direct tariff exposure < $10M; total exposure < $30M; pass-through protections; cautious on consumer demand in MX/APAC	Rising risk, manageable
Transit Packaging	In line with expectations but industrial activity contracting	Lower volume/profitability	Quoting high, orders slower; most exposed to tariffs	Cautious/soft
Cash flow & leverage	Adjusted FCF YTD $668M; net leverage ~3.0x	Record adjusted FCF $814M; net leverage 2.7x	FY25 adj FCF ~$800M; TTM Adjusted EBITDA >$2.0B; adj net leverage 2.8x	Solid/maintained
Capacity & capex	Manufacturing platform optimized; capex lower	—	Considering capacity additions (e.g., Greece); Brazil line addition announced for 2026	Selective expansion
FX assumptions	—	—	Euro $1.08; FX volatility could add ~$0.05 benefit at $1.14 EURUSD	Volatile

Management Commentary

“Crown got off to an excellent start… robust volumes in Brazil and Europe… outstanding operational performance… Beverage can volume growth in North America, in the low-single digit range, was also better than expected.” — Tim Donahue .
“We are mindful of… tariff increases… however… performance in the first quarter significantly ahead of earlier expectations… increases its full-year 2025 guidance range to $6.70 to $7.10… Q2 adjusted EPS $1.80 to $1.90.” — Kevin Clothier .
“Transit performance was down… quoting is very high; actual orders… slower… business that could be most affected by tariffs, both directly and indirectly.” — Tim Donahue .
“Trailing twelve month adjusted EBITDA… exceeded $2 billion for the first time… optimistic about the future for beverage cans… gaining share… ~80% of new beverage product introductions.” — Tim Donahue .

Q&A Highlights

Pre-buying and demand cadence: minimal evidence of beverage pre-buying ahead of tariffs; strength driven by volume and execution; some potential pre-buy in NA food but minor .
Summer tightness & substrate shift: tight supply expected in NA & Europe; substrate shift toward cans appears to be accelerating in Europe (can growth > liter consumption) .
Transit Packaging: quoting elevated; slower orders amid customer capital caution; direct tariff impact primarily components/equipment into U.S. from Europe (<$10M) .
FX & buybacks: euro assumption $1.08; potential ~$0.05 EPS tailwind at EURUSD ~1.14; buybacks around ~$300M for 2025 .
Capex & working capital: new 2-line plant costs have risen to >$250M vs prior ~$170M; working capital outflow ~$75M expected for 2025 .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025: Adjusted EPS $1.67 vs consensus $1.23; revenue $2.887B vs consensus $2.818B — a broad-based beat likely drives upward revisions to FY EPS and Q2/Q3 seasonality assumptions*, supported by raised FY guidance to $6.70–$7.10 .
Q4 2024: Adjusted EPS $1.59 vs consensus $1.51; revenue $2.903B vs consensus $2.892B — modest beat despite Eviosys gain distorting GAAP metrics*.
Q3 2024: Adjusted EPS $1.99 vs consensus $1.80; revenue $3.074B vs consensus $3.062B — beat on continued beverage strength*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Actual vs Consensus Detail

Period	EPS Actual ($)	EPS Consensus Mean ($)*	Revenue Actual ($MM)	Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)*
Q3 2024	1.99	1.80	3,074	3,061.6
Q4 2024	1.59	1.51	2,903	2,892.4
Q1 2025	1.67	1.23	2,887	2,818.4

Key Takeaways for Investors

Beverage can momentum and manufacturing execution drove a material beat; volumes in NA (+2%), EU (+5%), Brazil (+11%) provide confidence into peak season .
Guidance raised and Q2 outlook strong ($1.80–$1.90 adj EPS), implying seasonality but conservatism around tariff/Transit Packaging risks; FY adj EPS now $6.70–$7.10 .
Transit Packaging is the most tariff-exposed business (direct < $10M; total < $30M), with high quoting but slower conversion; monitor order cadence as macro visibility improves .
Liquidity and capital returns intact: FY25 adjusted FCF ~$800M and buybacks around ~$300M; dividend declared $0.26 for May 2025 .
Balance sheet progress: TTM adjusted EBITDA >$2.0B and adjusted net leverage ~2.8x; long-term target 2.5x reaffirmed; $700M notes priced to refinance 2026 maturities .
Watch European substrate shift and summer tightness as upward drivers of utilization and margins; capacity additions being evaluated (e.g., Greece; Brazil line addition slated for 2026) .
Estimate revisions likely skew higher near term given Q1 beat and raised FY guide, but management tone remains prudently cautious on tariffs and Transit Packaging .

CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (CCK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary